Trump’s Tariff Gamble: Liberation Day or Economic Disaster?
Hey there friends! Below are the articles and videos I chewed on as part of preparing this week’s video commentary. Enjoy!
Can Tariffs Actually Work? - Economics Explained
An excellent video overview of the history and impacts of tariffs in the US.
Let the Trade Wars Begin - Context Matters
A video explanation of trade tensions between the US and China.
Randy Barnett on the unconstitutionality of the “Liberation Day” tariffs
A useful X thread from guest on the show and constitutional scholar, Randy Barnett.
A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System - Stephen Miran - Hudson Bay Capital
Stephen Miran is a key economic advisor whose work appears to be informing the Trump administration. This paper from November 2024 seems important.
Breaking Down Trump's Potential Trade & Economic Policies | Stephen Miran
A YouTube interview with Stephen Miran from 4 months ago.
Oren Cass - Understanding Trump Tariffs Through the Lens of “The New Conservatives” | The Daily Show
Oren Cass being chummy with Jon Stewart in their mutual rejection of free markets and free trade.
The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines
An empirical research paper on the full impacts of tariffs placed on washing machines under the first Trump term.
Trade Freedom and The Myth of Tariff Reciprocity - Philip Magness
A short but empirical review of the current state of US tariffs by economist Phil Magness. He makes the case that the US is actually “one of the worst offenders among developed nations in placing discriminatory tariffs and NTBs on our trading partners”.
Why Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariffs are Illegal - Reason.com
A solid starter on the legal issues surrounding Trump’s unilateral actions on tariffs.
Trump’s trade war will hurt poor Americans most - FreeOpp.org
A useful and visual guide to America’s $3 trillion in exports.
A quick explanation of how US imports are put to use.
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December and Annual 2024 - BEA.gov
There are two sources for 2024 GDP and Trade deficits.
Federal Surplus or Deficit as a Percentage of GDP
St. Louis Fed data on the long-run federal deficit as a share of GDP.
The Mar-a-Lago Agreement - SFL on X
An interesting twitter thread on the bigger picture of what President Trump is trying to do with these tariffs in the context of our global monetary system.
Thomas Sowell - Basic Economics
An interview with the great Thomas Sowell in the immediate years after the Great Recession.
That "Reason" article is pretty persuasive that the tariffs are illegal. Perhaps one can argue China and Russia's threats constitute an appropriate emergency.